War is Imminent?
Headlines may claim that war with China is unavoidable, but should we really be worried?
A few weeks ago on a flight from Newark to Hong Kong, I noticed something quite peculiar as flight attendants were handing out newspapers. One of them had an ominous headline about an impending war between the United States and China. This was of course news to me and I found it a bit odd that such a headline would be so prominent in a major newspaper. Nevertheless, I quickly fell asleep, confident that when the plane landed fourteen hours later no battles would be raging. Sure enough, I was right and three weeks later this ‘imminent’ war still hasn’t taken place. Yet headlines like this are becoming more and more commonplace as China asserts itself more strongly on the world stage.Territorial disputes in the South China Sea over the past few years have reignited old tensions between China and many of its neighbors. The United States, part of President Obama’s ‘pivot to Asia’ strategy, has also gotten involved in the region by conducting freedom of navigation patrols around the contested islands. The situation reached a boiling point this July when an international tribunal ruled against China’s claims in the region, sparking strong condemnation from Beijing and some nationalistic protests across the country. The fervor has since died down, but tensions still remain. Whether it is the South China Sea dispute, THAAD, Japan’s more aggressive foreign policy, or Taiwan’s new pro-independence government, China is having to contend with neighbors who are increasingly wary of its influence. According to the Pew Research Center, less than 20% of Japanese and Vietnamese people view China favorably. Views in South Korea and the Philippines are decidedly more mixed, with no more than half having unfavorable views, but vast majorities in both countries did express at least some concern over territorial disputes with China. In the United States, only 37% of respondents had a favorable view of China, with many Americans becoming increasingly concerned about the country’s military strength. China, for its part, reciprocates much of the distrust directed towards it. Less than half of Chinese respondents to the Pew poll viewed either Japan nor South Korea favorably and nearly 52% felt that the United States is trying to ‘contain’ China. With all this negativity, it’s easy to believe the increasingly commonplace saber-rattling headlines. As China plays an increasingly large role in global affairs, old alliances and foreign policy strategies are being called into question. However, it’s important to remember that the world today is not like it was a few decades ago. Conflicts are seldom black and white. They’ve become more nuanced and require multilateral cooperation. For all the criticism leveled at globalization in recent years, it has had the immensely positive side effect of integrating the global economy to levels never seen before.When countries are dependent on others for their economic success, they are more likely to solve conflicts through diplomatic channels. Despite heightened tensions between China, its neighbors, and the United States, there is good reason to remain optimistic about the future. Trade between the United States and China in 2015 was valued at nearly $598 billion, while trade between China and the countries of ASEAN (Association of the Southeast Asian Nations) amounted to over $480 billion. These numbers will only grow in the coming decades. The sky is not falling and war is not imminent. If NYU Shanghai is any indication, cooperation, not conflict, is the future. This article was written by Ben Haller. Please send an email to [email protected] to get in touch.Photo Credit: Savannah Billman