Now that Xi Jinping has announced that China, the world’s number one emitter of greenhouse gases, will adopt a cap-and-trade system to limit emissions, may we hope that the second highest emitter, the United States, will follow suit? I find little cause for optimism. Cap-and-trade bills have died time and time again in both the House and Senate thanks to the persistent lobbying of the Koch Brothers and others in the fuel industries. An unflattering number of American politicians do not even “believe in” climate change. Rick Santorum “never bought into the hoax” and Scott Walker “honestly [does] not care to discuss it.” Donald Trump sums up the prevailing Republican attitude quite eloquently in a tweet; “This very expensive GLOBAL WARMING bullshit has got to stop.” To understand the weak political traction of climate reform in countries like the United States, it may be helpful to consider climate change’s uneven global distribution of consequences.Global warming may be a global crisis, but it is not a universal crisis. In fact, though global warming is all in all bad for our planet, some parts of the world actually stand to benefit from it. First among them, of course, are those countries with claims to resource extraction rights in the Northern Sea: Russia, Norway, Canada, Denmark, and the US. When temperatures rise, vast amounts of oil, gas, and valuable minerals now trapped under impenetrable Arctic ice will be made accessible to them triggering a geopolitical race between these countries. Moreover, sea lanes near the arctic circle will spend a much shorter portion of the year frozen. The thawing of the Northwest Passage will shave 4,000 miles off the routes that connect Europe and Asia today via the Panama Canal. This is especially great news for Russia and Norway who will soon be able to ship oil to global markets much faster and cheaper. An increase in a few degrees centigrade will also dramatically increase the amount of arable land in the world’s northern regions. Northern Europe can expect a thirty percent increase in wheat production. The amount of land suitable for cultivating corn in Finland and Sweden will double. Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Poland will become prime wine-growing regions. This, of course, will come at the expense of Italy, Southern Spain, and Southern France which will no longer be suitable for wine production.Canada, it is often predicted, will become a major superpower in the wake of climate change. Melting ice pack will leave Canada with an abundance of fresh water while the rest of the world grapples with acute water scarcity. Additionally, oil and gas reserves in Canada’s northern territories will become increasingly accessible at a time when global reserves are dwindling. Canada’s rich mineral resources will be exported quickly and cheaply through the new shipping lanes that open up in the melting Arctic. Canadian agriculture will thrive and productivity will soar under the more hospitable climate conditions. Thanks to its more temperate climate, Canada will attract more tourists, and immigration will surge. Canada is projected to be one of the only developed countries to experience significant population growth over the next forty years.While the Global North may reap some benefits from climbing annual temperatures, the effects on the Global South will be catastrophic. Rising sea levels pose an immediate existential threat to low-lying island states which can expect to be partially or completely submerged within the next few decades.The Pacific Island nation of Kiribati has already declared its land uninhabitable and has appealed for help in evacuating its 100,000 residents. Meanwhile, the President of the Maldives has started an investment fund in hopes of purchasing land from another country on which to relocate its 300,000 imperiled residents. Low-lying Bangladesh has already begun to produce a steady stream of climate refugees as climate-related environmental disasters including extreme coastal inundation, chronic drought, and dramatic erosion continue to generate widespread population displacement. A whopping 20 million Bangladeshis are expected to become climate refugees within the next forty years. The list of countries most at risk due to climate change more or less spans the entire developing world. Thirty-five percent of Vietnam’s population will be displaced by rising sea levels while the Philippines will be routinely battered by superstorms. Vast swaths of Africa will become uninhabitable as desertification and drought take their toll. Population centers from Sudan to Malawi will be decimated by famine. The devastation wrought by climate change on the developing world is too broad to be adequately summarized in this article.Though the developed world will certainly have to cope with innumerable adverse impacts, it is in a substantially more comfortable position to adapt both because it has the financial resources to do so and because the developed countries of today tend to be located in relatively cooler climates than third world countries. New York and Tokyo will invest in sea walls. Dubai and Houston will turn up the air conditioner. Napa Valley wine growers will take their business Northward while Sydney homeowners will stop watering their lawns. Climate change may seem more like an inconvenience than a cataclysm in these places. The developed world will be forced to confront the woes of the third world, however, when wave after wave of third world climate refugees flood into the their countries and overwhelm their resources. The current refugee crisis that is destabilizing the Eurozone today is just a little taste of what is yet to come. This article was written by Alexander Kario. Send an email to [email protected] to get in touch. Photo Credit: Claire Schapira