China in America's Backyard
In discussing global politics attention to how countries are flexing their economic and military status, it is necessary to understand the undercurrent strategies and ploys at work. Naturally one cannot debate global politics without mentioning the United States, which holds the world's biggest economy and one of the strongest militaries. Every subtle or explicit move that the US makes is scrutinized and widely debated, much like President Obama’s most recent “pivot to Asia.” Although this economic and political strategy deserves intense attention, the US’s biggest competitor, China’s own global initiatives, more specifically China’s “pivot to South America” could prove a equal, if not higher, consequence to the global stage. In the last decade China has lent out significant bundles of money to many Latin American countries including, Ecuador, Venezuela, Cuba, Brazil, and Argentina. These loans, used mainly for infrastructure, mining, energy, and housing development come with minimum, sometimes no, policy requirements and are often criticized for their sub-par environmental standards. This is not exactly fresh news, but the promise of a $5 billion loan to Venezuela, a country recently devastated by declining oil prices and with the current highest inflation rate in the world (68.5%, last published CPI), has made this a topic worth reevaluation.Although $5 billion is a decrease in the amount of money China lends to Venezuela (they received $5.7bn last year), the economic state of the country does make this significant. Ricardo Hausmann, Harvard Professor and former Planning Minister for Venezuela, claims that Venezuela’s economic crisis is just as bad, if not worse, than most people are estimating it to be. With their fiscal deficit at 20% of the GDP and inflation rates estimated to be 200%, he maintains that Venezuela will have no other option but to default in 2016. This raises the question as to why China would continue to finance a struggling country like Venezuela while other countries have effectively cut them off. Many have cited their political alliance as a possible explanation, as Venezuela and China share political ideologies, but the motivations remain unclear. However, Venezuela is not the only Latin American country expecting a big cash flow. Ecuador is expected to receive $4 billion while Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, will receive $50 billion in investment and trade deals. Along with investments that include agriculture, transport, and energy, China hopes to build a railway that spans from Brazil to Peru to further facilitate trade with the BRICS country. Among this ambitious project floats a rumor of China investing in a Nicaraguan canal, which compounded with China’s history of lax regulations and policy requirements has sparked a lot of environmental concerns. This is especially troubling considering President Xi Jinping just returned from his landmark visit to the US, where he discussed climate change along with cybersecurity.Yet, it has been argued that China’s loans to Latin America are doing more good than bad. Chinese banks are dealing with countries that are not normally able to borrow from Western countries and IFIs, like Venezuela, Argentina, and Ecuador, and the terms of the loans allow these countries a lot of freedom to develop. On the other hand, many critics find the loans and trade deals to be implicitly unfair, claiming that these loans don’t foster local growth and main exports to China have very little value added, as places like Argentina and Brazil still mainly export raw materials and resources rather than hard industry. Additionally another concern is that these countries have a shaky history with inflation which could lead to deeper currency depreciation and an inability to pay off their debts. Although almost everyone seems to agree that China’s involvement in Latin America is a good thing, the lack of regulation and rules remains a primary interest. The China- CELAC forum earlier this year was one of the first attempts at “regulating” the Sino-Latin Relations. The first meeting mainly served to set the agenda for 2015-2019 and establish dialogues, but it could also be said to have set the stage for a China-US competition. Latin America, often referred to as America’s “backyard,” will become the new arena where the US and China compete for influence. The background to this is appropriate considering the recent normalization of US-Cuban relations, and the decline of anti-american latin countries has given the US an opening to reestablishing relationships in the region. It will not be surprising if, in a few years time, Latin America is under the spotlight for a new brand of globalization, one involving both China and the United States.Sourceshttps://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/09/03/china-strengthens-ties-to-cash-strapped-venezuela-with-5-billion-loan/http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2aa9e8ce-5128-11e5-8642-453585f2cfcd.html#axzz3mcolBofOhttp://www.wsj.com/articles/ecuador-expects-4-billion-in-loans-from-china-in-2015-1427144435http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/06/economist-explains-3http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-31639768https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisishttp://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-07-24/news/64817061_1_aiib-brics-countries-new-development-bankhttp://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-113hhrg88016/pdf/CHRG-113hhrg88016.pdfhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-28/harvard-professor-now-says-venezuela-won-t-escape-default-in-16http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2015/09/30/xis-us-visit-is-a-decisive-moment-for-sino-latin-american-tradehttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/19/china-brazil-trade-deals-billionshttp://thediplomat.com/2015/01/despite-us-cuba-detente-china-forges-ahead-in-latin-america/http://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelas-maduro-announces-20-billion-in-new-bilateral-agreements-with-china-1420656259http://www.dw.com/en/chinese-loans-helping-latin-america-amid-oil-price-slump/a-18284605 This article was written by Ana Cicenia. 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